Week 3 Milli Maker Winning Lineup Recap

The week 3 DFS Main Slate was stacked. Pun intended. The main slate had 5 games projected with over 50 point totals & it was obvious that many GPP winning lineups - especially the Milli Maker - would have a combination of stacks to rise up to the top of the leaderboards.

We had game totals of 55.5, (Sea/Min + TB/Lar) 55, (Lac/Kc) 52, (Az/Jax) And 50.5 (Bal/Det) What most of us didn’t expect was a game with two of the better defenses in the 2020 season to produce such a big stack that would take down the Milli. In hindsight, maybe we should have as Josh Allen was popping in the optimizers.

Stacking

If we knew the game script between Buffalo & Washington would produce 60+ points, people would’ve been all over this game looking to stack It every which way. Diggs, Mclaurin, Gibson, etc. Would they have stacked Allen, Beasley, AND Emmanuel while not including Diggs? Not including Mclaurin as a bring back? Probably not. This 3 player team stack was brought back with Logan Thomas for the full game stack. QB + WR + WR + Opposing TE. This 4 player game stack produced 100.62 points.

The 2nd stack in this lineup did include one of the 2 highest projected scoring games, and even though it fell below projections, WMM70116 nailed the correct plays in this game to maximize the stack between Min/Sea. The news of Alexander Mattison getting the nod to start came down on Sunday Morning as Dalvin Cook was ruled inactive. Mattison was paired with Jefferson and Metcalf was the bring back option on the other side. This RB + WR + Opposing WR game stack produced 81.6 points.

Between the two game stacks and 7 players, these milli maker winning stacks produced 182.22 points and averaged 26 points per player. WMM70116 just needed his two one offs to hit to have the kind of ceiling needed to take down the Milli Maker - exactly the kind of scenario you generally need once your stacks hit.

Roster %

As we’ve seen early in the season already, the overall roster % has been very low. In 14 out of 16 weeks in the 2020 season, the winning lineup was under 130%. In week 2 it was only 87%. In Week 3, it was as follows:

Allen 5.44%

Mattison 14.83%

Swift 6.32%

Metcalf 13.57%

Beasley 3.3%

Sanders 4.2%

Thomas 1.19%

Jefferson 6.68%

Cardinals 16.83%.

This total roster % of 72.36 keeps with the very low roster % trend for the start of the 2021 season. Deciding to go contrarian with a game stack of Allen, Beasley, Sanders, & Thomas was the recipe for this as this entire stack was under 15% ownership while producing over 100 points.

Pricing

This wasn’t one of those lineups with pricey players above 8K and some stone minimum players that hit their ceiling. The highest priced players were Josh Allen at $7000, Jefferson at $7200, and Metcalf at $7300. Every other player was 6K or less. However, no player produced less than 2.80X. In fact, every player besides Logan Thomas produced 3.52X or more. On average, every player under $6,000 produced 4.64X. Couple of things that can be taken from this pricing is it provides evidence that you don’t need a team full of studs to take down the Big GPP’s. The proper mix of Studs and sleepers stacked in the right game environment can provide all the scoring you need for several guys in 4-6K range to produce 4-6X on their salary in order to win the tournament.

Secondly, while we normally don’t pay up for Defenses in cash games, in large field GPP’s such as the Milli Maker, they can make all the difference between winning $50,000, $100,000 or $1,000,000. This Cardinals D was the difference between winning and losing at their elevated price tag of 3K... produced 6X for 18 points.

If you have a high scoring offense going against an abysmal football team like with the Cardinals and Jaguars, that is a recipe for sacks + turnovers. It’s a recipe for defensive scoring so don’t be afraid to pay up for Defenses in GPP’s.

Metcalf $7300 - 3.52X

Jefferson $7200 - 4.13X

Allen $7000 - 5.74X

Mattison $6000 - 4.35X

Swift $5800 - 4.08X

Beasley $4800 - 4.33X

Thomas $4700 - 2.80X

Sanders $4200 - 6.28X

Cardinals $3000 - 6X

Ceiling

As we established when breaking down the 2020 Milli Maker WInning lineups, if you’re shooting for a target score to take down a massive GPP like the Milli Maker, you’re going for about 250 points. Now as we’ve seen with the start of the 2021 season, sometimes 222 points is enough to win the Milli Maker. Sometimes 270 won’t even get it done. The average number of points in 2020 was 243, with a high of 279 and a low of 217 Points. To hit 250 points, you need an average of 27.77 points over 9 roster positions to win the Milli. Targeting game stacks and players that can produce the kind of ceiling to win the Milli is important, otherwise you’re just wasting your time. Each player selected has produced in the range of that 25-30 point game in the past to keep pace with the 27.7 point average, and guys like Allen, Metcalf, & Jefferson have produced as high as 40+ points to help carry others to that 27.7 average - as Allen did here. Fortunately for WMM70116, 223.92 points was enough to win the Milli Maker so a 24.88 point average was sufficient.

Historical Ceiling:

Allen: 40 points

Mattison: 20-30 (Small sample size)

Swift: 25-30

Beasley: 25-30 pts

Sanders: 25-30 pts

Jefferson: 30-40 pts

Metcalf: 30-40 pts

Thomas: 20-25 pts

Cardinals: 15-20

Overall, this lineup was the Nuts in the Milli Maker this past week by targeting the correct game stack in the Sea/Min game for a contrarian build to combine with the 4 player game stack that was heavy on the Bills side of the Buffalo/WFT game.

The Bills won all the Bills in the Milli.

Tune into ‘Makin a Milli’ Podcast each week as we review/preview the Milli Maker. Find us on youtube or on Spotify/Itunes under Fantasy Fling Podcast.